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이 주제에 관한 라이브러리의 모든 강의입니다. 초급부터 고급까지 다룹니다.
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What a backtest can prove, and what it can't
A backtest shows how a precisely defined rule would have behaved on past data under stated assumptions. It cannot show the rule will behave that way again.
- 초급
- 백테스트 & 검증
- 해설
- 3분
출시 예정: 62
- Data quality: gaps, spikes and duplicates
- Backtest, paper trading and forward testing
- Two data providers disagree: what to check
- Data quality checklist
- Sample size: how many trades is enough?
- Backtest sanity checklist
- Overfitting in one picture
- In-sample vs out-of-sample
- Parameter sensitivity: plateaus vs peaks
- Walk-forward analysis: testing as time passes
- Stress-testing a rule
- Benchmarks: choosing the right yardstick
- Code as a transparent calculation aid
- A macro chart can use numbers nobody had then
- Checking an AI-generated indicator formula
- Statistical significance without the jargon
- Sample size calculator for strategy metrics
- Calendar and seasonal rules
- Machine learning for markets: what it can and can't do
- Confidence intervals for strategy metrics
- A small p-value is not a strategy
- Recipe: a multi-timeframe filter experiment
- Bootstrapping: resampling your own results
- Look-ahead bias: the backtest that read tomorrow
- Survivorship bias: the symbols that vanished
- Data checks before any backtest
- Baselines: the model to beat is simple
- Benchmarks and null strategies: beat something simple
- Fill assumptions: close, next open or intrabar?
- Leakage: how ML studies accidentally cheat
- Regime analysis: when did the rule work?
- Backtest autopsy: five ways a great result was wrong
- Overfitting simulator: the best of N random rules
- Keep a record of every strategy you rejected
- What walk-forward efficiency does and doesn't say
- Backtest bias quiz: spot the flaw
- Multiple testing: why many discoveries fail
- The deflated Sharpe ratio, made intuitive
- The look-ahead bug our engine refuses to run
- Many strategies, one dataset: selection bias
- Business cycles are labelled with hindsight
- Data vintages: when the numbers get revised
- Reading published pattern statistics critically
- Test a pattern definition separately from outcomes
- Pivots that move: why patterns change later
- Test Fibonacci confluence before believing it
- Optimisation and its traps
- Monte Carlo simulation: what could have happened
- Probability of backtest overfitting (PBO)
- Screens have biases too: survivorship and timing
- Precision, recall and calibration for market models
- A backtesting protocol checklist
- Text data and LLMs: timestamps and leakage
- Ablation: prove which part of a rule matters
- From screen results to a tested hypothesis
- Time-series cross-validation done right
- Signal decay: how fast does an edge fade?
- Purged and nested validation
- Trees and boosting on tabular market data
- Spot the leak: an ML study quiz
- Monitoring a strategy with rules set in advance
- Model drift and monitoring