Argomento
Statistica
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Cerca e filtra in questo elencoPrincipiante
A pattern's match score is not a probability
A match score says how closely a shape fits a pattern's rules. It is not the chance the pattern leads anywhere. Learn the difference.
- Principiante
- Pattern grafici e a candele
- Spiegazione
- 3 min
In arrivo: 81
- Volatility in plain words
- Linear vs log scale: when the y-axis misleads
- Returns: simple, log and percentage points
- Standard deviation: volatility as a number
- Probability for analysts: base rates first
- Inflation reports decoded: CPI and PCE
- Distributions and fat tails, in pictures
- Expectancy: the average outcome of a rule
- Risk-reward and win rate, together
- Reading a backtest report: metrics that matter
- Y-axis playground: linear vs log
- When averages disagree: arithmetic vs geometric
- Jobs reports decoded
- GDP and PMIs: two growth snapshots
- Correlation without the confusion
- Random walks can draw convincing patterns
- Compounding and the arithmetic of losses
- Nominal vs real: adjusting for inflation
- Sample size: how many trades is enough?
- R-multiples: outcomes in units of risk
- Trend, noise or bounce? Guess the process
- Reading a Monte Carlo fan
- Market regimes: trending, ranging, calm, wild
- Benchmarks: choosing the right yardstick
- Three indicators agreeing can be one opinion
- Volatility measures compared: ATR, stdev, HV, chop
- Z-scores and percentile ranks
- Bayesian thinking for analysts
- Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar, side by side
- Pandas time-series essentials for analysts
- Build a non-redundant indicator panel
- Crypto and macro: rates, liquidity and correlation
- Regression basics: lines through noisy data
- Autocorrelation: does today echo yesterday?
- Quant formulas cheat sheet
- Diversification and correlation
- The yield curve: shapes and what they describe
- Risk-on, risk-off: reading cross-asset moods
- Statistical significance without the jargon
- Stationarity: prices vs returns
- Momentum vs mean reversion: the statistical view
- Volatility clustering and calm-storm regimes
- Sample size calculator for strategy metrics
- Calendar and seasonal rules
- Risk of ruin, illustrated
- Machine learning for markets: what it can and can't do
- Do stocks and bonds always move opposite?
- Confidence intervals for strategy metrics
- A small p-value is not a strategy
- Combining signals without an echo chamber
- The Kelly criterion: elegant math, fragile inputs
- Risk-of-ruin simulator
- Ranking screens: relative strength and percentiles
- Features and labels: framing an ML question
- The golden ratio in markets: history vs evidence
- Bootstrapping: resampling your own results
- Baselines: the model to beat is simple
- Benchmarks and null strategies: beat something simple
- Multiple testing: why many discoveries fail
- The deflated Sharpe ratio, made intuitive
- Many strategies, one dataset: selection bias
- Efficient and adaptive markets: the debate
- Normalising indicators: z-scores and percent ranks
- Business cycles are labelled with hindsight
- Trend quality: slope, efficiency and persistence
- Linear regression tools: slope, channel and fit
- Principal components: hidden common drivers
- State-space models and the Kalman filter
- Factor models: explaining returns with exposures
- Value at Risk and expected shortfall
- Reading published pattern statistics critically
- Event study: measuring reactions to a release
- Cointegration is not correlation
- Volatility models (GARCH), conceptually
- Risk contributions and weighting schemes
- Cycles and seasonality: patterns in the calendar
- Correlation explorer: relationships across regimes
- Monte Carlo simulation: what could have happened
- Probability of backtest overfitting (PBO)
- Precision, recall and calibration for market models
- Feature importance is not causation