Free tools
Drawdown simulator
Put in a hit rate, an average win and a risk per trade, and the simulator plays out thousands of random trade sequences with those numbers. It shows how deep the falls from a peak get, how long the losing streaks run, and how widely the outcomes spread. It illustrates what your own assumptions imply. It is not a forecast for any market or strategy.
Your assumptions
Simulation
The same seed and inputs always give the same result.
Expectancy per trade—
Median max drawdown—
95th pct max drawdown—
Runs reaching the threshold—
Median longest losing streak—
95th pct longest losing streak—
Runs ending below the start—
Spread of equity across runs. Equity is indexed from 100.
How it works
Each run starts at 100 and plays the chosen number of trades. Every trade is independent: it wins with the hit-rate probability, gaining the average win times the amount risked, and otherwise loses the amount risked. The amount risked is the chosen percentage of equity at that moment, so the size shrinks after losses and grows after wins (fixed-fractional sizing).
For every run it records the largest fall from a running peak (the maximum drawdown), the longest run of consecutive losses, and where the run ends. The figures above are the median and 95th percentile of those across all runs. The fan shows, at each point in the sequence, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of equity.
Expectancy is the hit rate times the average win, minus the loss rate times 1R. A positive expectancy still produces long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in some runs, which is what the fan makes visible.
What it leaves out
Real results are not independent draws with a fixed hit rate and fixed win size. Costs, slippage, gaps, changing conditions and clustered losses all differ from this model. Use it to see what a set of assumptions implies, not to judge whether those assumptions hold for any market or strategy.